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He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What's His Forecast For 2020?

New York Times Opinion · USA · Documentary · 7 min · 3.5M views

Historian Allan Lichtman, who correctly called Trump's 2016 win, explains his election-forecasting model and what it says about 2020.

A clear look at the unconventional model that has called decades of US presidential races.

Right now, polls say Joe Biden has a healthy lead over President Trump. But we’ve been here before (cue 2016), and the polls were, frankly, wrong. One man, however, was not. The historian Allan Lichtman was the lonely fo

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